HSBC Chief Economist Dennis Turner speaks out at Orega office launch
Chief Economist for HSBC Bank, Dennis Turner, attended the launch of Orega’s new serviced offices in Colmore Row recently, in central Birmingham.
Dennis delivered an engaging talk about the state of the UK economy, and strived to answer the question: ‘The UK recession – how long, how deep?’
During the talk, Dennis covered the past, present and future of the UK recession, and predicted that despite negative factors such as rising national debt, the UK would finally be returning to a solid growth rate in 2010 – albeit slowly and painfully.
“It’s a slow climb uphill,” he says, “but we’re on the way.”
He believes that the recession will be deep but short. And with interest rates currently at their lowest since 1694, consumer spending is expected to fuel a significant portion of the recovery.
However this positive outlook is marred by rising national debt, which is currently soaring to record levels. Net government debt is set to reach record post-1945 levels next year at ┬ú175bn, while the consumer each owes an average of 19 months’ pay. This poses “a bit of a problem.”
He says that the UK is in “huge debt”, and currently the Government “is spending ┬ú175bn more than it is taking in taxes, which is equivalent to 12% of GDP. It’s the first time ever a deficit has exceeded ┬ú100bn.”
But Government and consumer spending will help get the UK economy back on its feet, as “everybody’s expenditure is someone else’s income.”
Find out more about Dennis’ view on the economy in our coverage of his talk: The UK economy: “Bad next year, but not quite as bad”.